Recently, the market hype of the semiconductor industry has taken over, and the growth rate of the subdivided industry has broken through the sky. For example, fenghua high-tech has increased by more than 80% in a month. The reason for this is that we had a hunch.
People familiar with the industry had long anticipated the outcome, with not only fenghua gaoke but also sanhuan group, which has a similar business, among its top four performers last week.
Today we are also going to mention the PCB copper-clad industry, which is similar to the resistive electronic components industry in the internal semiconductor industry.
According to the report, from July, the major PCB manufacturers, including omv electronics and jiantao group, have issued price increases, saying that the environmental protection restrictions on production and prices of materials such as copper sheet, copper foil, enterprises choose to increase prices.
The institution holds that with the upgrading of 5G communication equipment and the substitution of domestic materials, the industry will realize the logical transformation from cycle to growth.Domestic leading enterprises benefit from the arrival of the industry business cycle, market share is expected to increase.
Affected by this, shennan electric circuit (002916), a leading technology in the mid and high-end field of PCB in China.Shanghai electric power co., LTD. (002463) -- one of the leading PCB manufacturers in China.Still, Mars thinks the industry deserves our attention.
First of all, what is the PCB industry
PCB (PCB for short) refers to the PCB that is connected between the predetermined lines and road design on the common base material. PCB is the common circuit board, which is extremely common and in great demand. Therefore, PCB is also known as the "mother of electronic system products".
The industry is cyclical and the market is big, with the market approaching $60 billion by 2020
According to the historical situation, PCB industry is sensitive to the upgrade of downstream electronic products. The next development cycle is expected to benefit from the automotive electronics, consumer electronics micro-innovation and communication equipment upgrade. The growth trend will remain unchanged for at least five years in the future.
Global PCB industry rebound due to unbalanced supply and demand
The upstream and downstream of the PCB industry are very clear and can be divided into three parts: upstream raw materials, middle and downstream PCB manufacturing.
PCB has a wide range of applications in the lower reaches, and it is now facing a boom period in the industry. There is a determined momentum in the four sectors of HPC, communications, consumer electronics and automotive electronics.
There's a lot of other space issues involved in the demand side and I'm not going to go into that too much here, but the main board for cell phones alone is a huge demand side, and we're going to focus on the supply side.
The demand of multiple plates downstream of PCB is facing the boom market. However, in the global scope, the supply side has caused the capacity shortage due to various reasons, resulting in the imbalance of supply and demand.
Supply side: global industrial shift, multiple pressures lead to tight supply
Industrial transfer has shaped the global pattern, production capacity has become a fact, positive domestic enterprises.
China is the largest industrial base for global capacity transfer. From 2009 to 2016, PCB output value in mainland China led the world in growth rate. In the past eight years, the output value growth in mainland China was basically higher than that in the world and other regions.
The tightening of the environment aggravates the shortage of supply
PCB industrial chain each link related to heavy metal pollutants such as copper, nickel, silver, and in the process of the presence of large amounts of chemical reactions that will produce waste gas, waste water, solid waste, the environmental impact of large, from the kunshan production events that took place at the end of 2017 will see that with the increase of environmental protection regulation, PCB industry sewage, waste disposal, substandard enterprises will be eliminated directly, thus exacerbating the situation in short supply.
The imbalance between supply and demand creates growth opportunities
The direct result of the imbalance between supply and demand is price increase. Based on the analysis above, we can know that the upstream is the source of the overall supply and demand imbalance of the industry. Therefore, the price increase path of the PCB industry is mainly shifted from the upstream to the downstream, i.e.
PCB bibcock has good ability to pass on price, copper clad rise in price, the price will be conductive to the downstream pressure of PCB vendor, and PCB maker to ensure their profitability, on the one hand, can control the manufacturing cost by production control, on the other hand can also increase the price pressure conduction to the client, so the global PCB maker in the industry chain is the most stable gross margin level.
Focusing on Chinese manufacturers, caitong believes that in the upward industrial development environment, benefiting from the increased domestic substitution and concentration, the following leading Chinese manufacturers are expected to see their performance in the upward cycle.