The reasons for the rise in glass fiber prices can be summarized as the following four points:
Capacity contraction at the supply end led by fiberglass manufacturers: the fiberglass industry has a high degree of concentration and obvious periodicity.In the case of continuous downturn in the market of fiberglass electronic yarn/electronic cloth in the early stage, many enterprises with pot-kilns give priority to the development of fiberglass roving products, and the number of newly built fiberglass electronic spinning pot-kilns decreases. Among the domestic enterprises, only taishan fiberglass has built 50,000 tons of fiberglass spinning pot-kilns, which were ignited and operated in November 2015.In 2016, taishan fiberglass and chongqing international Shanghai fiberglass spinning pool kilns were successively shut down, a total decrease of 3.80,000 tons of electronic fiberglass yarn.In addition, chongqing international headquarters base has a glass fiber spinning pool kiln cold repair stopped production, the industry electronic glass fiber yarn production capacity in a small decline.Under the limited production capacity of electronic fiberglass yarn, supply and demand tend to be tight in the short term.
The increase of the pressure of environmental protection and the shrinking of the output of imitation cloth have changed the relationship between the supply and demand of electronic fiberglass gauze.
Under the guidance of the new industrial policy, the production capacity of electronic cloth tends to be concentrated in enterprises with glass fiber pot-kilns, which results in the increase of the pressure of professional electronic cloth manufacturers.
Since the beginning of 18 years ago, the price of some fiberglass cloth has begun to loosen.We have learned from the market that 7638 cloth and 2116 cloth are used for thick plate, with an average decrease of 5% ~ 18%.The price of fiberglass cloth number for thin plate is still high.In the early stage, the pool kiln under cold repair has been started to ignite successively in 18Q2, and the production capacity has been gradually released. This year, the factor that has a great impact on the supply side will be the environmental protection limit on production, and the middle and low-end non-compliant enterprises will be further cleared.
1.3.Resin prices remain high
Synthetic resin is one of the important raw materials for copper clad plate because of its good mechanical properties, electrical properties and bonding properties.Different types of PCB have different requirements on resin: generally speaking, phenolic resin and epoxy resin are mainly used for single/double panel, multi-layer board and HDI, high speed/high frequency board is mainly used for tetrafluoroethylene, and environmental protection non-brominated resin is used for the popular halogen-free copper clad board in recent years.At present, the suppliers in China and Taiwan mainly provide phenolic resin and epoxy resin.
In addition to downstream demand, there are two other reasons for the rise in epoxy resin prices: raw materials and environmental protection.In terms of raw materials, the upstream industry of epoxy resin (mainly oxychloropropane and bisphenol A) is closely related to the trend of global crude oil prices. Crude oil prices have been rising continuously this year, and the resin prices have continued to reach new highs.In terms of environmental protection, many manufacturers in huangshan, shandong and other places did not meet the environmental protection requirements, which led to production cut and shutdown, or increased production costs to meet the environmental protection requirements, thus promoting the price of epoxy resin to continue to rise.
1.4.Upstream raw material prices directly affect the price of copper clad plate
Copper clad plate as the PCB's most basic material, also known as the substrate.It is also called Core when it is used in multilayer board production.It is mainly divided into two categories: rigid copper clad plate (CCL) and flexible copper clad plate (FCCL). According to the requirements of different downstream properties, it is further divided into copper clad plates of different material types.From the current market demand for copper clad plate, the future copper clad plate will appear four trends:
(1) meet the environmental protection requirements of lead-free and halogen-free;
(2) lightweight, high strength, thinner;
(3) meet the requirements of high frequency and high speed in the future;
(4) able to adapt to more complex working environment, such as high heat resistance, corrosion resistance, etc.
At present, Japan, the United States and Europe have focused on composite, special substrate and other small and fine areas.
In 2016, the global rigid copper clad market, from 2015 to 93.$700 million, 101 in 2016.$200 million, an increase of 8 percent a year.0%.In addition, the market concentration of copper clad plate is relatively high. Since 2013, the market share of the top ten PCB companies in the world has been over 70%, reaching 74% in 2016.However, the production capacity increased too slowly, and the compound growth rate from 2013 to 2016 was only 2.2%.The supply and demand relationship between copper clad plate and PCB industry began to be tense at the end of 2016.
The biggest rise in the price of copper clad plates was from the end of 2016 to the third quarter of 2017, when the average price soared from 101 yuan per piece to 200 yuan per piece.Since the end of 2017, the price of copper clad plate has been somewhat loose, and after a period of fluctuation, it basically falls back to 170 yuan/piece.Jiantao took the lead in announcing the price increase notice in January, 18. However, judging from the downstream purchase situation, the price increase did not last long and was not implemented into the downstream purchase orders of large quantities.From the end of March 2018 copper clad plate manufacturers began to reduce prices, an average of about 5%.However, since late may, the downstream PCB orders have recovered significantly from the slow season. In June, the overall order schedule was tight, and the copper clad plate factory started to send the price rise signal again.We expect that the overall price rise of copper clad plate this year will be limited. In the third quarter of 2018, part of the new capacity of copper clad plate will be issued one after another, and the supply and demand relationship with downstream PCB enterprises will be further eased.