The arrival of 5G is the beginning of the real interconnection of all things. 5G will complete the interconnection of all things in the world.With the advent of 5G era, communication PCB will also usher in a good time!
PCB, Printed Circuit Board, is called "the mother of electronic products". All electronic equipment and products need to be equipped with PCB Board, which makes the downstream demand sustainable and stable. The development level of the industry can reflect the development speed and technology level of the electronic information industry of a country or region to some extent.
First, the number of 5G base stations is higher than that of 4G base stations. According to the public data of China's three major telecom operators, China mobile, China telecom and China unicom added 400,000, 380,000 and 340,000 4G base stations respectively in 2016, which increased to 1.51 million, 890,000 and 740,000 respectively, totaling about 3.14 million.It is estimated that the number of small base stations in the future will be more than 10 times of the current base station market.
Second, due to the high speed and high frequency of 5G, the value of communication board will be greatly improved for a single base station.On the one hand, with the increase of 5G frequency band, the increase of frequency makes the number of rf front-end components increase dramatically. Besides, Massive MIMO is integrated onto AAU, the PCB use area on AAU increases significantly, and the number of layers increases.On the other hand, with the significant increase of 5G transmission data, there are higher requirements for the data processing capacity of base station BBU. BBU will adopt PCB with larger area and higher number, and high-speed and high-frequency materials shall be used in the base material.Conservative calculations show that the PCB value of a single 5G base station is more than twice that of 4G.
(2) the demand for 5G mobile phones, tablet computers and other thinness drives the improvement of FPC market space
IDC predicts the first 5G smartphones will be available in the second half of 2019, and 5G phones will be shipped by 7% (about 212 million units) of the total number of smartphones shipped by 2020, accounting for 18% by 2022.
According to industry research, there are at least 20 FPC Numbers in the new apple phones, which are worth more than $20, and tablet products are expected to be more thin and light, which will be widely used in FPC products.At the same time, leading domestic brands such as huawei, OPPO and vivo have also increased their FPC dosage to 10-12 pieces.
In 2016, the global market size of FPC increased to 85.2 billion yuan, and the market size of FPC in China increased to 31.6 billion yuan. It is expected that the market size of FPC in China will reach 51.6 billion yuan by 2021, with a compound growth rate of 10%.
(iii) electronic, electric and intelligent automobile will bring incremental market space to PCB
First, intelligent driving & automobile digitization: the electronicalization of automobile will lead to the increase of PCB usage. In 2010, automobile electronics accounted for about 30% of total vehicle BOM, which is expected to increase to 50% by 2030.Now end models in PCB usable floor area of about 0.5 ~ 0.7 square meters, the economical car using area of PCB is 0.3 ~ 0.4 square meters, assuming that PCB for an average of 1000 yuan/square meters, the average bike worth 800 yuan, luxury car PCB use area of about 2.5-3 square metre, bike is worth more than 2500 yuan, as car electronic degree deepening, demand for PCB area will gradually increase.In addition, the intelligent driving advanced driver assistance system ADAS also require a lot of PCB.
Second, new energy vehicles: new energy vehicles have significantly increased the PCB used by traditional vehicles. If the PCB used by bicycle is preliminarily estimated to be 3 square meters and the average price of PCB is assumed to be 1,000 yuan/square meter, the new market size of new energy vehicles corresponding to PCB will be 2.85 billion yuan, 3.96 billion yuan, and 54.30 billion yuan from 2018 to 2020.