G Goes Into The Back Period And Waits For 5G.

- Jan 27, 2018-

     

      5G will facilitate the further development of PCB industry, and the prosperous PCB market will accelerate with the pace of communication intergeneration upgrade. The 4G will enter the post-cycle period, and 5G will help the PCB industry to further develop and prosper the PCB market.(1)4G network has basically achieved global coverage, and operators have entered the 4G post-cycle.As of the third quarter of 2017, the global 224 countries and regions, 200 countries and regions have built 644 LTE public network, LTE users reached 2.36 billion, the average every 4 in a mobile user has a LTE users.As of the first half of 2017, the total number of 4G base stations in China reached 3.41 million, and the total number of 4G users reached 885 million, with a penetration rate of 65%.(2) capital expenditure, which is in the low ebb of capital expenditure, changes periodically with the upgrading of communication technology.Global operators' capital expenditure has increased year by year since the 4G rollout in 2010, reaching a total annual investment of $197bn by 2015.Since then, the process of 4G network construction has slowed down, with capital expenditure falling 6% and 3% respectively in 2016 and 2017.China's 4G capital expenditure achieved the highest growth rate of 30 percent in 2013, the largest investment reached 438.6 billion yuan in 2015, followed by a decline of 19 percent to 356.2 billion yuan in 2016, and the investment budget in 2017 continued to fall 13 percent to 310 billion yuan.It is expected that the operator capital expenditure will be driven up by 5G in 2018~2019.

     The industry catalyzes the events, and the investment opportunity of the key link of 5G industry chain will be ushered in after 2018.

     According to the 5 g technology research and development progress, standards, and the number of users growth, we invest 5 g is divided into four stages: theme temperature stage (2017), the key link of industrial chain investment stage (2018 ~ 2021), the high order 5 g technology mature stage (2021 ~ 2023), and after 5 g phase (after 2023).

The theme warming period of 2017 is mainly catalyzed by two events.

     In September 2017, China's three major operators issued a white paper on 5G transmission network, and at the end of December 2017, 3GPP passed the national security agency (non-independent networking) standard.In 2018 is expected to enter the key link in the industry of investment stages: (1) 5 g transmission network architectures, relative to the 4 g access RRU and BBU two level structure, 5 g will evolve to AAU, DU and CU three-level architecture, divided into prequel, pass and then crosses in three parts.The framework of 5G transmission network has been established, and the optical communication industry chain (optical equipment - optical fiber optic cable - optical module) has benefited the most.(2) in terms of 5G architecture and technical standards, the NSA standard will be completed in December 2017 and will be frozen in March 2018. The standard of SA(Standalone, independent network) is expected to be completed by June 2018 and will be frozen in September 2018.The technology and AAU technology will be widely quoted.

    The benefit optical transmission network bearing program, 5G optical communication industry chain as a whole benefits.

Light equipment, 5 g era, at all levels and the upgrade of the optical network capacity will be fully, at the same time otns light application range of the equipment will be from the current backbone layer, the development of metropolitan area layer to access layer and send, transfer and even prequel.According to preliminary estimates, 5G time optical equipment will achieve at least 50% growth.For optical module, 5G base station will use 25G/50G/100G high-speed light module.The market size of the 25G optical module is expected to reach us $15 billion. The market size of the 50G/100G light module is expected to reach us $25 billion. Compared with 4G, 5G is the equivalent of creating a new market for optical modules.Fiber optic cable, due to back to the way in the new 5 g transport network, DU and CU deployed separately, and the fiber optic interconnection, so 5 g era prequel fiber usage or the base station will reach twice the 4 g, considering the density of 1.5 times that of the base station coverage, 5 g fiber aggregate demand is expected to reach 4 g about three times.

The elastic space of each device is large, and the investment of PCB and copperplate is strong.

    The 5G rf front end includes the core components such as antenna oscillator, PCB(printed circuit board), filter and PA(power amplifier).Due to the wide application of large scale antenna (MassiveMIMO) technology and active antenna (AAU) technology, three major changes will occur in the rf front end :(1) the number of rf channels increases and the number of rf devices is multiplied;(2) increase in value of rf devices;(3) the internal value of rf front end is transferred to PCB(high frequency copper clad plate), filter and power amplifier (PA).According to our calculation, 5G rf front-end market can be four times as large as 4G, and the total investment is over 250 billion yuan.Among them, PCB and its upstream CCL(covering copper plate) are the world's leading technology strength, which is expected to occupy more global market share in the drive of main equipment manufacturers.

       Shenzhen Found Printed Circuit Company is a professional PCB manufacturer , which has been certified ISO 9001-2008, ISO 14001-2004 and ISO/TS 16949-2009. In Aug 2013, our company introduced ERP system, which helped to improve factory operation management. In the past decade, Shenzhen Found Printed Circuit Company provided stable and reliable PCB manufacturing solution to over 1,000 customers from all over the world.