In recent years, the industry center of gravity of PCB has been shifting to Asia, and the production capacity in Asia has been further transferred to the mainland, forming a new industrial pattern.Before 2000, 70% of global PCB output was distributed in Europe, America (mainly North America), Japan and other three regions.With the continuous transfer of production capacity, the output value of PCB in Asia is close to 90% of the world, and it is the leading PCB in the world.
At the same time, the regional capacity in Asia has shown a trend of transferring from Japan, Japan and Taiwan to mainland China in recent years, which makes the PCB capacity in mainland China grow at a rate of 5%~7% higher than the global level, becoming the region with the highest PCB capacity in the world.According to prison mark, the value of PCB in China will reach $29.4 billion in 2017, accounting for 50.5% of the global output.
In this regard, zhongtai securities believes that there are three dimensions to explain the reason for PCB industry to transfer to mainland and domestic companies:
First of all, from the growth rate, according to prison mark, the PCB in the world increased by 7.6%, and the manufacturing in China grew by 8.6%, so the output of the mainland in the world increased to 50.5%. In fact, the domestic companies increased by more than 13%.Looking at the data released by CPCA, the domestic capital revenue of 100 PCB companies with 17 annual revenue exceeding 100 million yuan reached 768.32 billion yuan, which increased by 23.77% over the year of 16. The TOP 5 domestic capital leading growth rate was even higher.
Secondly, from the perspective of proportion, according to prison mark, the proportion of domestic companies in the world actually keeps increasing, which was only 15.9% in 2013 and reached 18.3% in 2017.
And finally, from the incremental point of view, according to prison mark, the increment of global output value of the circuit board in 17 years is about $4.7 billion, and that of the mainland is about $2.6 billion, which is more than the incremental contribution of all regions outside the mainland.In mainland China, the contribution of domestic manufacturers increased by over 1.3 billion us dollars, that is to say, domestic manufacturers achieved the incremental contribution beyond foreign capital with a relatively small volume (approximately half of foreign capital).
Global supply and demand are clearly out of kilter
As China becomes the main production base of global PCB, the production status of Chinese PCB determines the global PCB supply and demand relationship.
In this regard, caitong securities believes that with the complexity and high-end application scenarios of downstream HPC, communication, consumer electronics, automobile electronics, etc. of PCB, PCB has a massive growth space.
However, from the supply side, due to the long-term downturn of upstream copper prices in previous years and the withdrawal of some production capacity in mainland China due to the improvement of environmental protection, in absolute terms, the main PCB production base in the world is in a tight supply.
In addition, PCB upstream of the other two raw materials pulp and epoxy resin recent high prices.In 2015, the price was relatively low, while in 2016, the price gradually recovered.