(1) industry supply side: structured production expansion and exit coexist
The analysis of supply side of PCB industry can be divided into two parts: new capacity and exit capacity.
We divided global PCB enterprises into land-listed, land-unlisted and foreign-funded enterprises, and analyzed the impact of new production capacity from the industry supply side through the statistics of their future production expansion plans.
As can be seen from the production expansion plan of the land-funded listed enterprises in the next few years, by 2023, it is estimated that the new production capacity will correspond to the total output value of 49.9 billion yuan, of which 16.4 billion yuan is the multi-layer board, 19.4 billion yuan is the soft board, 11.4 billion yuan is the HDI and 2.7 billion yuan is the load board.
It can be seen from the production expansion plan of the non-listed enterprises of lu zi that by 2023, the total output value of the planned new production capacity will be about 52 billion yuan, among which 22.7 billion yuan will be produced for multi-layer boards, 10 billion yuan for HDI, 5.2 billion yuan for sealing and loading boards, 11.7 billion yuan for FPC and 2.5 billion yuan for metal baseboards.
The production expansion form is longer than listed.
It can be seen from the expansion of foreign enterprises that foreign enterprises have a low willingness to expand their production. In the next three years, the total output value of new production capacity of large PCB plants with expansion plans in foreign countries is about 24 billion yuan, of which FPC is about 16.2 billion yuan, HDI is about 4 billion yuan, laminated boards are about 3.5 billion yuan, and IC is about 500 million yuan.
In recent years, the profitability of foreign PCB enterprises has not been good, so they have basically entered the stage of structural withdrawal from the middle and low-end market (single-sided and multi-layer PCB boards) and expansion of some high-end production capacity according to the needs of key customers.
According to the comprehensive ranking of 150 PCB companies with more than 100 billion business revenue in mainland China in 2017, the total business revenue is 202.566 billion yuan, while there are about 1,200 PCB manufacturers in mainland China (including different factories of the same company and foreign-invested factories in mainland China) with a total output value of about 210 billion yuan.
It can be seen that there are 49 PCB manufacturers with revenue of more than one billion yuan, accounting for 76% of the total output value.
Firms with revenues of $500 million to $1 billion and $100 million to $500 million account for only 11% and 9% of total output.
There are 800 to 900 manufacturers with revenues of less than 100 million, accounting for less than 5% of the total output value.
In recent years, the expansion and withdrawal of PCB production capacity in mainland China have been carried out simultaneously, and manufacturers with incomes of less than 100 million yuan have been shut down due to environmental supervision pressure and poor profitability.
The reasons why firms with revenues of $100 million to $500 million quit are similar to those with revenues of less than $100 million.
Income 5-1 billion, even more than 1 billion manufacturers, in addition to the pressure, but also because of the PCB industry market concentration downstream customers to ascend, reversed transmission the PCB supplier requires large-scale matching ability, excellent quality, timely response, does not have the relative advantage of small and medium-sized manufacturers, gradually being squeezed out, is to concentrate in large industrial resources.
According to the statistics of the association, the exit speed of PCB's original production capacity in mainland China is 3% to 5% of the total output value every year, and the production capacity of environmental protection supervision is not much.
Between 2022 and 2023, the global output value of new production capacity is about 18.5 billion us dollars, including us $3.8 billion for HDI, us $7 billion for FPC, us $6.3 billion for multilayer board, and us $1.25 billion for IC board.
When annual new output value is added during the distribution period, the principle of gradual acceleration of production expansion is followed.
In 2017, the global total output value of PCB industry is about 58.8 billion us dollars (Prismark). The combined growth rate of output value of HDI, FPC and other subsectors is calculated according to the following formula:
Where I represents HDI, FPC, multilayer board, IC board.
2. In terms of the impact of production expansion on the estimated output value, the planned HDI capacity of production expansion accounts for about 6% of the estimated global HDI output value from 2018 to 2022, FPC accounts for about 8%, multi-layer board accounts for about 4.5%, and IC load board accounts for about 3.5%.
3. The production expansion data of PCB cannot be viewed superficially, because each production expansion plan is divided into 2-3 phases, which will be carried out gradually within about 5 years. Whether the subsequent phases are invested depends on the capacity digestion effect of the first phase.
4. PCB company expansion planning, public disclosure of the planning capacity in addition to stage, later to see if early results and then make a decision on the outside, usually the company will to take the government as much as possible of the taking of planning eia emissions targets and take the radical, the actual expansion project, prudent, so planning figures released by the surface may be greater than the actual capacity expansion.
5. Foreign PCB factory low-end capacity (sandwich plate, etc.) are actually the exit, in recent years, only a small percentage of Taiwanese factory to meet the Apple on the high HDI, FPC client requirements in terms of directional expansion, such as Japan and the European and American manufacturers (Mr Winters, Apple's board vendor has completed in 2017 round of expansion) expansion has ground to a halt, is in a state of contraction.
6. There are three types of PCB production expansion in mainland China: one is to ensure the gradual penetration of high-end market (HDI, etc.), such as shenghong, jingwang and chongda, on the premise of the rapid development of the multi-layer board market.
The first is to continue to cultivate the advantageous areas (shennan's load board and sutong products, dongshan's high-end FPC, etc.) and constantly replace the share of foreign leading factories.
One is to stop the original high-end product planning (HDI, etc.) and move to the more profitable multilayer boards (such as idon electronics) that have been produced by mainland manufacturers in recent years.
7. The original capacity of PCB in mainland China exits at a rate of 3% to 5% every year. There is not much production capacity for environmental protection clearance, but it will be deeply optimized.
(ii) industry demand side: dynamic and stable growth
The development of PCB industry has gone through several periods, from the rapid start in 1980-1990 (CAGR=15.9%), to the sustained growth in 1991-2000 (CAGR=7.1%), to the great fluctuation in 2001-2010 (CAGR=2.1%), and then to the stable growth from 2011.
In the context of the global economic recovery, the demand of communications and electronics industry is relatively stable, and the hot spots in the consumer electronics industry are frequent.
According to Prismark, the global PCB industry's output will continue to grow in the next few years, and the global PCB industry's output will reach 68.81 billion usd by 2022.
Industry supply and demand summary:
Demand is growing steadily.
The demand of the PCB industry is ultimately related to the macro-economy, which is determined by the prosperity of the electronics industry and depends on the purchase demand of the B end and the C end.
Over the next three to five years, it is expected to maintain a steady growth rate of 3-5%. There may be a situation like that in 2017, when the industry as a whole has exceeded expectations due to the strong terminal upgrading (iPhone) and the demand for new areas (virtual currency).
2. The analysis of new capacity should not be superficial, and the impact on the market is smaller than the public data.
The production capacity will be expanded in stages, and the later production capacity will be followed and implemented according to the early release effect, and will not be blindly released.
In addition, in order to get more environmental assessment indicators, PCB manufacturers will make more radical declaration planning in the early application and land acquisition, but they will be more cautious in actual production expansion.
Supply and demand are generally balanced in the short term.
From the perspective of aggregate, take mainland China as an example. Suppose that the GDP growth driven by downstream demand is 4% and the exit speed of backward production capacity is 4%.
From 2018 to 2022, the new production capacity of HDI, FPC and other subsectors accounted for approximately 2.9% to 8.6% of the estimated total output value (figure 5 data interval), and the new production capacity accounted for approximately 2.9% to 8.6% of the estimated total output value (2.9% to 8.6%), which is basically less than the production capacity gap (8%) caused by withdrawal and downstream demand.
Considering that the next 5 years will be the period of concentrated downstream innovation, we can preliminarily believe that the future supply and demand of the industry will be balanced!